Skip to content
MacroSpark Research

Research Papers

Original research on macroeconomics, quantitative finance, and market structure. All papers are free to read and download.

IPOsMonetary PolicyIndian Equity Markets
Jul 2025 · 11 pages

How Interest Rate Cycles Affect Small-Cap IPO Performance: A Quantitative Study of India's Primary Markets (2018–2024)

Abstract

A quantitative study of small-cap IPOs on the NSE and BSE from 2018-2024, using correlation and linear regression to test how the RBI repo rate at time of issue relates to listing-day gains and 30-day post-listing returns.

Artificial IntelligenceBehavioral FinanceIndian Equity Markets
Aug 2026 · 26 pages

Narrative-Driven Markets: Artificial Intelligence Optimism, Retail Investor Behaviour, and Sectoral Equity Performance in India (2022–2025)

Abstract

A quantitative study examining the extent to which AI-related market optimism and retail investor sentiment affected sectoral stock performance in Indian equity markets between 2022 and 2025, using comparative return analysis against the NIFTY 50 and an original AI Narrative Intensity framework.

Arnav Mangla
Monetary PolicyEmerging MarketsLocal Projections
Aug 2026 · 3 pages

Asymmetric Monetary Policy Transmission in Emerging Markets: A Local Projections Approach

Abstract

We test whether contractionary and expansionary monetary policy shocks transmit to output with equal magnitude, using a local projections framework applied to a compiled panel dataset. Contractionary shocks show a growth response roughly 2.4x larger than expansionary shocks of equal size.

MacroSpark Research
EquitiesFactor InvestingSystemic Risk
Aug 2026 · 2 pages

Factor Crowding in Global Equities: A Correlation-Based Crowding Index and Its Relationship to Drawdown Severity

Abstract

We construct a factor crowding index from the rolling cross-correlation of major style-factor returns and test its relationship to subsequent drawdown severity, finding a statistically significant negative relationship (R² = 0.42).

MacroSpark Research
Fixed IncomeCorporate FinancePanel Data
Aug 2026 · 2 pages

Interest Rate Volatility and Corporate Investment: Evidence from a Cross-Country Panel

Abstract

We document a negative relationship between interest rate volatility and corporate capital expenditure growth, with a materially larger effect in high-leverage subsamples (β = -4.85, R² = 0.68) than low-leverage subsamples (β = -3.27, R² = 0.46).

MacroSpark Research
FXCommoditiesTrade
Aug 2026 · 2 pages

Commodity Currency Dynamics in a Fragmented Trade World

Abstract

Post-2022 trade fragmentation plausibly weakens the historical relationship between commodity prices and commodity-exporting currencies. We re-estimate FX betas to a broad commodity index for AUD, CAD, NOK, and BRL across pre- and post-2022 windows and find a decline in beta across all four currencies.

MacroSpark Research