In-Depth Articles
Long-form articles on finance and economics. Each piece is available to read and download as a PDF.
The Yield Curve as a Recession Predictor: A 40-Year Review
We examine the predictive power of the 2s10s spread across eight recession cycles since 1980, testing whether the relationship still holds in a post-QE world.
Dollar Milkshake Theory: Evidence For and Against
Brent Johnson's Dollar Milkshake thesis has attracted significant attention. This article stress-tests the mechanism against current capital flow data.
ESG Premium or ESG Discount? What the Data Actually Shows
A meta-analysis of 60 empirical studies on ESG factor returns. We separate signal from marketing across different time horizons and geographies.
Inflation Regimes and Asset Allocation: Lessons from 1970–2024
Using historical inflation regime data, we construct asset allocation frameworks that outperformed traditional 60/40 portfolios across high-inflation periods.
Central Bank Digital Currencies: Design Trade-offs and Systemic Risk
A technical review of CBDC architectures across 12 countries, examining disintermediation risk, privacy trade-offs, and monetary policy implications.
Private Credit Boom: Opportunity or Systemic Risk?
Private credit AUM has doubled in five years. We examine covenant quality, illiquidity premiums, and whether the market is pricing default risk correctly.