Market Commentary & Opinion
Macro perspectives, market commentary, and opinion pieces — written with data and without an agenda.
The Fed Pivot: What It Actually Means for Markets
Markets have been pricing in rate cuts for months. But what does a genuine Fed pivot look like, and how should investors position for it?
Dollar Hegemony Is Not Dying — It's Evolving
The "de-dollarisation" narrative is louder than ever. The data tells a more nuanced story about reserve currency dynamics.
China's Property Overhang: Still No Clear Floor
Three years into the crisis, China's property sector remains a structural drag on growth. We examine what a bottom might actually look like.
UK Fiscal Space Is Tighter Than the Government Admits
With gilt yields elevated and the OBR forecasts looking optimistic, the UK's fiscal room for manoeuvre is narrower than official statements suggest.
The AI Productivity Paradox: Too Early to Tell
AI investment is surging. GDP productivity data is not. We look at why the productivity gains from AI may take longer to show up — and why that is historically normal.
Is the Commodity Supercycle Real This Time?
Energy transition, deglobalisation, and underinvestment in extraction are cited as drivers. We stress-test the supercycle thesis against the data.
Reliance Industries: The Conglomerate Discount Debate
Reliance trades at a valuation that some argue undervalues its parts. We break down the sum-of-the-parts case, sector by sector.
TCS vs Infosys: Two Approaches to IT Services Margins
India's two largest IT services exporters take structurally different approaches to protecting margin. We compare the underlying levers.
What Is Inflation, Really? A Plain-English Guide
Inflation gets blamed for everything from expensive groceries to a falling currency. Here's what it actually measures, and what it doesn't.
Bonds 101: Why Prices Fall When Yields Rise
The inverse relationship between bond prices and yields confuses almost every new investor at first. Here's the intuition, not just the formula.
India's GDP Growth Since COVID: A Chart-by-Chart Look
From the sharpest quarterly contraction on record to a multi-year normalisation — the shape of the recovery, in the data.
Reading the Yield Curve: What Inversions Have Predicted
An inverted yield curve is one of the most closely watched recession indicators in markets. What does the historical track record actually show?
RBI’s Rate Cutting Cycle: How Far Can It Go?
With inflation cooling and growth steady, the RBI has room to cut. The question is how much room, and what could close it.
India's Small-Cap Rally: Froth or Fundamentals?
Small-cap valuations have run well ahead of large-caps. Is this a durable earnings-driven re-rating, or a liquidity-driven bubble?
Gold's Record Run: Central Banks or Retail Panic?
Gold has repeatedly hit new highs. We separate the structural central-bank-buying story from the more cyclical retail-driven flows.