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MacroSpark Labs

Interest Rate Impact Model

Analyze how RBI repo rate cycles correlate with returns across small-cap, financial, and technology stocks using real regression and correlation analysis.

Sector

Small-cap companies — typically the most rate-sensitive segment. Each point is one RBI Monetary Policy Committee rate decision since 2019 (17 decisions), plotted against the sector's approximate 3-month forward return. Correlation, regression, and R² below are computed live from this dataset — see this tool's source for data methodology.

Correlation Coefficient (r)▼weak negative
-0.12
R² (variance explained)
0.01
Regression Slope▼return per +100bps
-4.6%
Sample Size
n = 17

Repo Rate Change vs. Nifty Smallcap 100 Return

-45%-20%5%30%55%-90 bps-51 bps-13 bps+26 bps+65 bpsRepo Rate Change (bps)3-Month Sector Return

Finding

A correlation coefficient of -0.12 indicates a weak negative relationship between RBI repo rate changes and Nifty Smallcap 100 returns over this sample: the regression estimates a -4.6% average return for every +100 bps of repo rate change, explaining 1% of the variance in 3-month returns (R² = 0.01).